Election 2024 Final Review
Part 1 of 2
The last newsletter was dark satire. This is a different animal. It gives fresh perspectives of long and short term duration. I won’t mirror the mainscheme media in their flawed coverage of the presidential race. That’s old, tired and unoriginal. The ongoing efforts by opponents of US citizens and democracy to trigger the majority of voters (aka the considerate and fact-bearing), and the efforts by foreign enemies trying to murder American democracy, are ultimately doomed to fail.
Short term positives: Based on the current tied numbers and the October trend. I predict Texas Senator Ted Cruz will lose to Colin Allred. That’s an offset to the high probability that Montana Senator Jon Tester will lose. There’s also nearly a 50% chance that Nebraska will reject the incumbent Republican Senator and vote in a strong Independent. There’s a reasonable chance that the Democrats will add to their narrow US Senate majority.
On the other hand there’s a few Senate races that are closer than expected where no more than 2 pts separate the major party candidates.
- In PA: The Republican McCormick is 1 pt behind the Democratic incumbent Bob Casey. In several polls.
- In Wisconsin: incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin is tied or ahead by 1 pt against the Republican Eric Hovde.
- In Ohio: Incumbent Sherrod Brown is 1 pt ahead of the Republican Moreno. However, the two polls saying that historically lean more Republican, so the gap may actually be wider.
So Democrats could fall 3 seats shy of a majority or win the majority by 2 seats, or be someplace in between. Control of the Senate is too close to call.
In the House, there are 6 races within 2 pts where Dems could flip a seat. So Democrats could win control of the House or wind up in a tie. Again, too close to call.
For the presidential race, there’s a long and short perspective everyone should be well-informed about.
The short term most are pretty aware of. But some factual evidence requires a few corrections.
1) Despite the inability to find a ‘proof’ level of evidence to prosecute Trump for colluding with Vladimir Putin, that never exonerated Putin’s deliberate and proven efforts to interfere in the 2016 election. In 2020, 2022 and 2024, his efforts have continued.
For a real enemy of the US to have such an impact via its spread of false information is not just election interference, but the increased risk of a military attack on US citizens by dangerous enemies like Russia, Iran, North Korea and others is the other great danger we all face that the mainscheme media almost never mentions (beyond Putin’s warning that he might use nukes because of NATO’s support of Ukraine).
Aiding and abetting dictators who would happily kill off hundreds of millions of Americans isn’t really patriotism. And tens of millions of American supporters of Trump just don’t care.
2) It seems pretty obvious that the 2020-2021 social media censoring of election deniers (especially after the violent insurrection) and violent hate group members - pissed off Elon Musk. It compelled him to buy Twitter and turn it into a rightwing, autocratic platform. He knew Truth Social would eventually go bust so he’s been changing X to be the new Truth Social, instead of the neutral free speech platform he promotes. Like Trump, he’s extremely thin skinned with any critic, regularly breaks his public promises and deliberately spreads conspiracy theories and lies that he knows are false. He may also be a lawbreaker (aka: criminal).
3) There’s a long history of ultra-wealthy men exploiting the middle class and the poor and powerless since well before the American Revolution. A long history of racism, misogyny and classism.
Wealthy slaveholders got most of their civil war battles fought by non-slave holders. Women couldn’t get credit cards or open bank accounts with their names alone until the 1970s. Illegal immigrants were lured to come to the US to work in the fields and farms of Big Agriculture then were underpaid and forced to live in overcrowded, defective and deficient housing. And the division of families, spouses or parents and children began with the colonialist European treatment of indigenous Native American tribes and kidnapped slaves.
Trump’s family separation orders aren’t at all new. It aims to renew the long tradition of cruelty and bigotry by wealthy men.
4) I don’t make it a habit to join leftwing or rightwing people with conspiracy theories about powerful people. But like-minded people don’t have to conspire directly. Copycats can pursue actions that benefit the richest while putting the heaviest tax burden on the middle class, without communicating with each other.. They can easily copy the actions of anti-Jewish or anti-Muslim mega wealthy peers.
After all, Charles Lindbergh and Ezra Pound and Henry Ford didn’t collaborate in the 1930s but each expressed anti-Semitic views and openly admired Hitler and/or Mussolini.
And then there’s a series of events in the past 60 years that every voter should be fully aware of to be fully informed.
In a 2 year period in the mid 1960s a majority of Americans began opposing the War in Vietnam. It was the first war where Americans were treated to daily images of the war on nightly news or in pictorial magazines like Life. In response to that the American military limited access of reporters in war zones, and wealthy people began the media consolidation we see at work today.
Examples from more than two decades:
A lot of the televised news coverage is now provided by the conservative Sinclair Broadcasting on 294 stations in 34 states. While media analysts often mention billionaires like Murdoch and Bezos, most Americans don’t have a clue who David Smith is and what he’s been up to. Examples from more than two decades.
Contrary to the constant rightwing claim, most of the news media doesn’t display a liberal bias. Key to propaganda is constant repetition of falsehoods, so take a look at how Sinclair Broadcasting accomplishes that.
A video of author Anne Nelson speaking on her book tour (for The Shadow Network) is a nice shortcut to better understand Sinclair Broadcasting and the Council for National Policy, which is further defined in the next graphic below. She covers much, much more in this 1 hour video. (slide the bar to 2:30 where her speech begins.)
.
The leading subscription-based newspaper is the Wall Street Journal. Billionaire Rupert Murdoch owns it and News Corp and Fox News. Another ultra conservative immigrant to America, Elon Musk, owns the Anti-Social Media site Formerly Known As Twitter. Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post and the biotech scientist and entrepreneur Patrick Soon-Shiong owns the LA Times and both blocked the presidential endorsements of their editorial staffs last week, which caused several editors and journalists to resign in protest and caused more than 200,000 cancelled digital subscriptions for WaPo in the past week.
This consolidation of media into the hands of billionaires can’t be classified as a conspiracy but it’s a clear sign that propaganda coming from the media they own is distorting and replacing fact-based news and editorials. Also misogyny claims are being made as the blocked endorsements in the past decade have targeted Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris (though Soon-Shiong was supportive of Hillary).
Control of media by the richest and most powerful mostly benefits the richest and most powerful instead of viewers. It’s become an essential wing of vulture capitalism, with its dangerous and predatory extremism.
5) In these waning days of the 2024 election, there’s far too much reading required to grasp all of the groups that have been invested in the destruction of moderate politics that also upholds unconstitutional extremism.
To fully understand the evolution of these corrosive anti-democracy groups and events, at some point in the near future, take time to review my recommended reading & watching list, below.
— The Heritage Foundation (founded in 1973 right after Nixon’s re-election), which became the leading conservative think tank in the 1980s and 1990s. Heritage now leads the post-election plan called Project 2025, which would consolidate complete presidential control over the executive branch of government to accomplish extremist policy goals, such as ending the merit based Civil Service with a Civil Service based on loyalty to the president (which they hope will be Trump). They have joined others distributing false information about the 2024 election.
Reading through that Snopes review of Project 2025, most of the plan provides no benefit to Americans, but they clearly benefit the convicted felon Trump and would grant him wider leeway to break more laws and harm more people
— The Council for National Policy (founded in 1981) which advances Christian Nationalism and the end of the separation of church and state. It’s the most powerful GOP organization as it’s spent more than 40 years to achieve it’s unconstitutional goals. By seeking to retain anonymity and avoiding any press offers no ‘proof’ of an illegal conspiracy but it certainly points to broad collaboration between billionaires, political mooks, religious extremists and insurrection supporters.
And Steve Bannon was released from prison on October 29th.
— Project for the New American Century, a group advancing interventionist military action globally, that mainly resulted with both wars on Iraq. Begun by a conservative writer and a conservative historian that influenced foreign policy decisions by the Clinton and GWBush presidencies. Among its leading supporters were Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, who served in the administration of Richard Nixon and every GOP president since (except Trump). Though they achieved their post- 9/11 goal of removing Saddam Hussein from power within a month of the start of the second Iraq War, their continued efforts to define the post-Saddam Iraq failed spectacularly, resulting in the Syrian War, the terror attack on Benghazi and the restoration of power to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
— The obvious election that was stolen, by the conservative Supreme Court, due to the Republicans involved in the Brooks Brothers riots in 2000. in an unprecedented move, the SCOTUS decreed that their election ruling could never be used as a precedent in future elections. And note the involvement of the self-described ‘Republican hitman’, Roger Stone. He first came to public attention as a member of CREEP, the Committee for the Re-Election of the President (Nixon’s crooked committee that utilized slush funds, money laundering and was involved in the Watergate break-in).
— The Big Short (movie currently on Peacock) or (Wikipedia description)
Adding humor, this provides details about the Housing Bubble Collapse from 2007-2009, in an easily understood way. Millions defaulted on their mortgages, tens of millions of owners and renters were forced to move and the banks and credit rating companies covered it up at first. It was criminal fraud of the highest order and the perps weren’t jailed or prosecuted. Federal Reserve Chair Greenspan didn’t even see it coming.
The lack of consequences and the corporate rescues by the federal govt caused a huge rise in disgust toward our government. It created a populist movement by conservatives and another by liberals. Instead of a status quo election of moderate middles, it made Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump viable, though the highly visible racist rebellion against Barack Obama’s elections also aided the outlaw Trump.
— And on the extreme right, the housing collapse began the rise of the Tea Party. Seeking lower taxes, opposing affordable healthcare, mandating a balanced budget and term limits for Congress members, it began as a small group but caught the attention of billionaires who supported it financially and editorially into a larger political force. Guys like the Koch Brothers were quietly supporting it till 10% of voters claimed membership. Active from 2009 till 2016, it peaked around the 2010 mid-terms and by 2016, it had been absorbed by the Republican Party though it had failed at most of its goals. It still keys in on smaller government, fewer regulations and support for a dubious Constitutional originalism that distorts the goals of most of the Founding Fathers.
The 5-4 Citizens United decision in 2010 by the conservative SCOTUS largely killed off election finance reform, handing the megawealthy individuals and groups much more power in elections, with less transparency about the identities of the wealthy donors to Political Action Committees and Non-profits. Big money has grown its influence exponentially in every election since that ruling.
— The Mercers and others utilized Cambridge Analytica in 2016 to tap into nearly 87 millions of Facebook accounts to create psychological profiles that were used to create unique microtargeting messages to sway them on candidates and ballot issues. The data breach was illegal but as it gained the attention of campaign finance officials, the company dissolved before anyone could be prosecuted. There is considerable speculation that its successor Emerdata is utilizing and refining the election propaganda tools begun by Cambridge Analytica.
A summary of Trump’s actions and campaign strategies: Trump’s desire to be a dictator is new, but baby boomers and older Americans have already experienced a time of deeply divided citizens and lawbreaking presidents in 1965-1974 caused by the Vietnam War, Civil Rights advances and women’s liberation. The main distinction between now and then is the depths of incompetence Trump has exhibited steadily since 2015.
Nixon was more competent. Reagan was more competent in his first 5 years in office. The only thing I saw that Trump got right was the grants to 2 or 3 pharmas to expedite covid vaccine development, though he regularly dissed the scientists and med researchers busy developing them.
Whatever claims that have been made by Democrats about Trump’s actions are given the “I’m Rubber, You’re Glue” treatment by Trump. So Harris becomes a criminal, responsible for all illegal immigration in the past 50 years, violent crime has risen under her vice presidency, etc with Trump’s simplistic propaganda playbook.
Though it’s become obvious that Trump is displaying signs of dementia, his chief talent appears to be the way he draws both the sketchy and criminal, not ‘the best people’ as he used to claim. Close to 75% of his ‘best’ hires are opposed to his candidacy now.
Many of his campaign strategies and speeches come from his inner circle of advisors. Anything about immigration likely comes from Stephen Miller, who’s been anti-Latino since high school. Steve Bannon and Roger Stone provide a lot of campaign ideas like Trump’s lies about the federal response to the communities hard hit by Hurricane Helene. Conservative pastors and priests provide his court appointments.
In many appearances in the past 2 months, Trump rambles, wandering from partial sentences to word salads that nobody can translate. It is clear he wants to use the DOJ, FBI and federal prisons to punish and prosecute any opponent or media critic.
Toxic masculinity: most women love men, but not the dominating bullies and sex predators.
Via ABC News:
»» Arnold Palmer's daughter, Peg Palmer Wears, reacted to former President Donald Trump's vulgar comments about her late father, calling them "disrespectful," "inappropriate," and "unacceptable."
"Being at the airport, which is named for my dad, where he flew out of to go to work every day or every week, you know, to come there and talk about … hackneyed anecdotes from the locker room … seemed disrespectful and inappropriate to me," she told ABC News Monday afternoon.««
Arnold Palmer popularized golf as he felt it should be a game for everyone, not just reserved for the country club elite. Trump believes the opposite, that the game should be reserved only for wealthy Americans. It was apparent throughout his career that Arnold Palmer was a humble guy, not one to boast about his victories. His toughest opponent, Jack Nicklaus, made that abundantly clear as well.
»» “Arnold Palmer was all man,” he said. “And I say that in all due respect to women, and I love women. But this guy, this guy, this is a guy that was all man. This man was strong and tough. And I refused to say it, but when he took showers with the other pros, they came out of there, they said, ‘Oh my God, that’s unbelievable.’” ««
His own words in that rally went from “I refused to say it.” And then he immediately said it. He also said Kamala Harris was a “shit Vice President.” That’s a new low at a campaign rally. And everyone knows it. (Via Will Bunch on 20 October, in the Philadelphia Inquirer)
Judge orders Rudy Giuliani to give the two Georgia poll workers who sued him for defamation that imperiled their lives. Specifically he’ll surrender his NYC penthouse and several expensive watches.
I served as a poll worker in a Republican Florida county in 1996. The Republicans I met there were entirely civil and friendly, without exception. Many were Social Security recipients who earned a little supplemental cash. They took great pride in their work, their accuracy and democracy in general.
Latest Polling through Oct 29
Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal poll says Trump’s in the national lead by 3 pts. Quinnipiac says Harris is up by 4 pts in Michigan, with the second highest number of electoral votes of the swing states, but fresher polls indicate it’s a 47%-47% tie there now.
The Hill, a right leaning publication says Trump is trending… yet in the same article, includes the latest Marist poll which says:
Arizona: Trump leads Harris 50%-49%
Georgia: A 49% -49% tie
North Carolina: Trump leads 50%-48% of likely voters.
All are within the margin of error, so either one could win each of the 3. But a more important measure shows that Independents support Harris 55%-45% in AZ, and by 55%-40% in Georgia. Trump wins the Independents in NC by 53%-42%.
This suggests Harris is likely to win 3 of those 4 swingers. For most of two decades, polling in Nevada usually has Republicans leading while the Democrats win by 2%-4%, so I’m quite certain Harris will win there. So those 5 swing states shouldn’t flip from the outcome of 2020. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the remaining two.
Bloomberg has Harris in the lead in PA, at 50%-48%.
Both Quinnipiac and Bloomberg say Wisconsin is tied 48%-48%
However, from Friday (Oct 25) through Tuesday (Oct 29) the national polls by leading US pollsters include 3 that call it a tie on Friday/Saturday, but Harris has gained an edge from Sunday through Tuesday from major pollsters by these margins: 51-47, 50-49, 50-47, 47-46.
In swing state polling by US pollsters from Sunday through Tuesday:
PA - 48-47 Trump, 49-49, 48-48, 46-46 and 49-47 Trump.
MI - 48-47 Trump, 49-48 Trump, 52-47 Harris, 47-47 but the two polls that included 3rd party candidates says 48-43 Harris and 47-44 Harris.
WI - 48-47 Trump, 49-48 Trump, 50-49 Harris, and in the one poll that includes 3rd party candidates, it’s 51-45 Harris.
NV - 48-47 Trump, 48-48 (but typically Democrats in this hard to poll state do 2-4 pts better than the polls)
AZ - 48-47 Harris
GA - No US pollsters in the past 3 days.
NC - 47-47, 46-46 and the Republican sponsored poll of the Trafalger Group has it at 49-46 Trump.
Doing The Math
What percentage of US voters are highly likely to vote for Trump?
Sept 2024 registered Republicans: 36 million, % of all registered voters: 30%
Democrats: 45.1 million, % of all registered voters: 38%
Independents/Non Affiliated: 32.1 million, % of all registered voters: 27%
Registered in third parties: 5.4 million, % of all registered voters: 4.55%
So, deducting the 3rd parties from all registered voters mean the Rs, Ds and Indies are fighting over 95.5% of all registered voters.
But there’s several distinct groups of Republicans. 3 of the 5 groups are highly likely to vote for Trump, as shown in the chart below. They make up 61% of the registered Republicans, which is just 18.3% of all voters. (This graphic from a November 2021 Pew Research article defines the GOP voting groups)
The worst case would likely give a 4th Republican group, the financially stressed voting bloc, a place in these calculations, but that would mean just 22.8% of all registered voters will vote for Trump. Versus 38% of all registered voters for the Democrats.
Recent polling across the country indicates that Harris will gain more than 50% of the Independents. So even if you calculate that a percentage of Democrats won’t vote for Harris and you factor in how many in all parties won;t get their votes in at all, then the obvious conclusion is that Harris will win the popular vote.
Recent Endorsements or Noteworthy Statements:
»» GRAND RAPIDS, MI – The daughter of Michigan’s only president, Gerald R. Ford, has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. «« (October 21st Michigan Live)
Ann Veneman a top official in President George W. Bush's administration, our nation's first female Department of Agriculture secretary, is the latest Republican to back Kamala Harris over Trump while providing reasons US farmers should vote for Harris too. ~ October 23rd Fox News
Via Newsday, Oct 30:
About the pro-Trump news media bias in candidate interviews, Van Jones “He gets to be lawless, she has to be flawless.”
Colbert on The Madison Square Garden Trump rally:
Part 2 will be published later today. It will be much shorter. Its focus will be the likely presidential race outcome and the closing arguments of the two major party candidates.
Feel free to share both parts with others, especially with undecided voters you know.