I'm Clickbait Averse

But you can't believe what just happened for the first time in history

Unlike anything seen since before Pocahontas was born, I went 3 days without writing a FB post. I know, it defies all the known rules of the universe. The old order is dead. The dominant paradigm is defeated. Physicists are dumbfounded. See how worthless a clickbait headline is? Made ya look!

The reality is an overwhelming array of events and responsibilities created a demand I mismanaged. In retrospect, I should have announced 2 weeks ago that I was going to take a 2 week ‘vacation’. I misjudged my capacities and fell short of my agreement to newsletter subscribers. Over 3 weeks, instead of 12 newsletters, you’ve received 5.

The only way forward is to offer 2 options to my paid subscribers:

1) You can request a refund of your subscription. I won’t prorate. I’ll refund it in full if you ask.

2) You can stick around. In the remaining 24 days of April (counting today, I will publish the 4 per week promised PLUS another 7 newsletters I owe after my March performance.

It’s your call. And I apologize for my March misfire. I hope you’ll stick around. I fully intend to not repeat this error ever again.

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PANDEMIC MATTERS

At a personal level, in 4 days, I will be 2 weeks past my second vaccination. I like the odds: 95% that I’ll be immune from catching Covid-19. On Friday, I’ll be driving one of the best friends in my lifetime to get his second vaccine.

At that point, every friend of mine over age 50 will have been fully vaccinated and likely protected for several months. Since the understanding of this virus is an ongoing study, it remains unknown if or when booster shots may be required to deal with variants or how long our current antibody levels will last.

It’s a good, healthy start and all credit is due to the scientists who developed the processes and vaccine testing protocols to get hundreds of millions of shots into arms globally 14 months after the need was first recognized. That’s unparalleled in world history. No other vaccine development and administration comes close.

It required the unraveling of the human genome in the past two decades. It required the development of new processes for vaccine creation. It required the added genius of several scientists who met the challenge of the moment.

The grading curve goes down considerably for the political leaders of multiple countries, some of whom mismanaged things badly. Some touted how they got Big Money to pharma companies to speed this outcome, but that overstates the case for what occurred. The development of all medicine commonly includes grants from governments and other investors absorb losses for years well aware that their losses will be recovered with profits following for every medicine successfully developed.

The collaboration of Pfizer with a German pharmaceutical would have occurred without the US cash infusion at exactly the same pace and their leadership team has said so. What most of that advance money actually accomplished is it granted ‘first purchaser status to a few financially strong first world countries. Other countries without similar resources will remain vulnerable a few months longer.

But the responsibilities of political leaders go well beyond determining pecking order. Getting the vaccines from manufacturing plants into billions of arms requires a distribution plan and the mobilization of millions of healthcare professionals to administer the shots. Unelected professionals created the logistic planning. Many healthcare professionals had to step up who had previously retired to get this done. Millions of unpaid volunteers stepped up, too.

When a full, fair, unbiased postmortem of this global crisis emerges in a year or two, I’m certain the scientists and healthcare professionals will be better recognized as the human foundation and infrastructure that produced such an outstanding result. It’s true that a few made missteps along the way. With any emerging pandemic, mistakes will always happen. A lot of ‘best-guessing’ is an essential part of the response, along with experimental treatment regimens. It was doctors, not politicians, that figured out steroid treatments helped reduce inflammation that produced better results for those hospitalized.

Some political leaders, like Angela Merkel of Germany, have a profound understanding of science and responded professionally with better outcomes. Other leaders second-guessed the scientists and politicized every step of the response and had much worst outcomes in their countries as a result.

This matters a lot. The political leaders who failed badly have seen mixed outcomes for their political careers. Donald Trump almost pulled off an upset, coming uncomfortably close to re-election with one of the worst records against the virus. There does seem to be emerging evidence that MOST of the worst outcomes occurred in countries with authoritarian right-wing leaders, though some authoritarians using absolute lockdown powers have produced great results, like China’s leaders.

And we’ve all clearly learned that open democracies remain susceptible to propaganda and manipulation that produce terrible outcomes where hundreds of thousands die early deaths that could have been avoided if their leaders listened to scientists and ultimately gave a shit about the citizens of their countries.

Which leaves us where TODAY?

1) The world’s second largest country is in big trouble. The third largest (the US) peaked on January 8th with over 300,000 new cases in one day. No other country exceeded 100,000 per day, though India and Brazil (the 6th largest country) came close. In the past week, India has soared to over 115,000/day yesterday. The trajectory of its rise indicate it’s likely to go much higher before it can be contained. Which means neighbors of India remain at increased risk, too.

2) Brazil with its new virus variant, seems to be subsiding now. But its still dangerously high and has yet to achieve a 3 week drop. It has to sustain that drop through next week to make it clear whether it’s achieving that desired goal.

3) The US, after sustaining a decline from January 8 through March 21st (10 weeks) still is the third highest in the world and has rebounded for 2 weeks, but mildly, thus far. In the next 3 days, we’ll better be able to determine if it will continue or will flatten some before declining more. The pace of vaccinations in the US seems to have limited its rebound. And several states displayed mini-rebounds that were reined in before a full 21 day rise occurred. Credit is due to the healthcare professionals and residents of the states who choose vaccinations and safety protocols over some misguided notions about independent action that they mistakenly identify as ‘freedom’. (Technically the choice to commit suicide is freedom, too, but it’s often a pretty lame and destructive freedom).

Four days ago, Michigan reached its highest level of new cases in 4 months and its 3rd highest day ever. It’s now risen for 6 weeks. By comparison, Pennsylvania saw a 2 week rise but declined in week 3. New Jersey rose for 3 weeks, but on week 4, it peak only went up by 7 cases, so it may be turning downhill this week, too. Ohio has reined in its short rebound too.

Minnesota, Illinois and Massachusetts have the most worrisome rises outside of Michigan, though Florida and Texas are displaying mild early rises now. Other large population states like CA, NY and GA display flattened or still declining numbers.

So contrary to what some politicians claim, both the pace of vaccine rollouts and the choices of a state’s residents matter a lot, particularly in states with dense population areas (cities). The longevity of the national rebound in the US can’t be predicted before April 24th, because of Florida and Texas. I remain very hopeful, but hope is no match for science and choosing to give a shit about your neighbors. Freedom means nothing without responsible choices. If your choice results in the early deaths of your neighbors, you’re still a deadly asshole. Period.

4) Turkey is rising fast and could surpass current US levels soon. It’s at approximately 50K new cases daily. In 5th place, Argentina just surpassed 20K/day for the first time and in 6th place, Iran just surpassed 15K for the first time. Just like the US, April 24th will prove key to whether the global rebound will continue its rise. India’s population is so large that it could - almost alone - cause the global rise to continue. But all of the top 6 need to be monitored till then.

So, GO scientists! GO healthcare professionals! GO responsible citizens and political leaders! You may yet deliver us from the stupid, the incompetent and the uncaring.

My video selection is dedicated to the millions of scientists and healthcare professionals present and past who have worked tirelessly to alleviate health threats in the world.

Included are members of my own family over several generations: Sharon, Marilyn, Leah, Alanna & David, Jason, Alicia, Bekah and Liz. And to friends like Gary C, Lorrie W, Scott C, Richard M and Liane A.