Is democracy on its deathbed or just a sickbed?
My apologies for the nine-day delay. Recent medical complications have limited my time on the computer as part of the prescribed treatment. As always, I encourage at least a quick scan of every link provided in this edition.
The status of democracy in Central and South America is worrisome. The green line shows support for it has fallen for a decade, while ‘they’re all the same’ blue line is rising.
The support for indifference plus support for dictators is now at a combined 40%, just 9% below the support for democracies. And that’s just through 2020 when the pandemic struck.
Though authoritarians currently only rule Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua in the Americas, worrisome government swings more to the right are occurring in Nicaragua, Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras, Chile, Mexico, El Salvador and Bolivia with economic inequality as the leading cause. Government corruption and government ineffectiveness are also very prominent factors. Uruguay, Costa Rica and Peru appear to be the most resilient to this rightward swing.
Of all the areas in the world, Latin America support for democracy is declining the fastest.
(Source of quote)
In Africa, only the tiny island of Mauritius is a full democracy. Just Namibia, Cape Verde, Namibia, Ghana, Senegal, Lesotho and South Africa qualify as ‘flawed democracies’, (as the green shaded countries show, or about 1/7th of the continent’s area). It’s the least democratic continent and contains the most corruption too.
If the much smaller Middle East area was larger it would be worse than Africa, as only Israel is a democracy and Lebanon grows close. But with Netanyahu in charge and threatening to remake their judicial system, that’s a considerable rightward shift for Israel with its Prime Minister facing a corruption trial. The civilian casualties in its war against Hamas are likely to lead to a reckoning by Israeli citizens: will they dump Netanyahu to stop its downward trend or will they double down and move towards more authoritarianism?
Currently the strongest democracies in the world are the four Nordic countries of Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark, plus Iceland, Ireland, Switzerland and New Zealand. The second tier is also quite strong: Australia, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea in Asia/Oceana, the UK, France, Germany and Spain in Europe, Chile, Uruguay, French Guiana and Costa Rica in Latin America and Canada in North America.
The Netherlands was in the second group till its election of the far right Geert Wilders this past week. The driving force behind that and declining support for democracy in most of Europe is the wave of refugees - mostly due to the wars in Iraq and Syria. Xenophobia and Islamophobia are growing at an alarming pace now.
As for the US, Trump and his Republican Party are exploiting that same xenophobia/ Islamophobia while simultaneously causing greater income equality. That’s why some political analysts already rank the US in the third tier: ‘flawed democracies’. Trump has also pushed the claim that both the Biden and Obama administrations are the most corrupt in our history with minimal evidence to support his claim. There’s no evidence at all to claim both have been ineffective, but Trump has demonstrated a knowledge of the value of propaganda. It’s his only visible talent.
The point is, this rightward swing that’s eroding democracy and faith in its benefits is not just an American phenomenon. It’s global. Income inequality (aka, the insatiable greed of the wealthiest), xenophobia/Islamophobia (aka: bigotry) and distrust of government is driving this dangerous and deadly national and global anti-democracy trend.
So a big part of the anti-immigrant fervor is blowback from the Bush/Cheney lies they used to justify the War on Iraq. The financial crisis that began in mid 2007 - also a result of Bush/Cheney policies - heightened distrust in government across the political spectrum. The covid pandemic and the extreme income equality has worsened that very understandable distrust.
On the hopeful side is the actual performance of the Biden administration. The post-pandemic economic recovery has led the world, moving the US ahead of China’s economic performance for the first time in decades. The inflation has been the downside but it’s been declining for more than a year.
The only way to counter the bigotry would be immigration reform that has been stymied for more than a quarter century by the Republican refusal to negotiate. And the highly visible exploitation of extremist Christian nationalism and white supremacy coupled to completely nonsensical claims about pedophilia and voting fraud aren’t likely to be dislodged in Trump’s base of violence loving haters.
But that base is no more than 25% of the voting public in the US. If the Biden administration reins in inflation and the 91 indictments against Trump yield some key convictions in the next year, that 25% is highly likely to be outmatched by Independents in the voting booths.
We should expect the GOP to resist the passage of any bills that could benefit the already strong Biden economic performance. They’ve already blocked most student debt relief and have been aiming at the shrinkage of the social safety net. Their new House speaker is just one of several who have or are still promoting reductions in Social Security and Medicare.
Biden’s competence will likely negate those efforts, but will more and better economic conditions counter the immigration issues and defeat the rightwing extremism that’s been instigating violence since 2014?
It can. It can also influence public perceptions elsewhere. But we’ve gotta hope for better economic performance and anti bigotry performance from our allied countries too. Major enemies of the US like the governments of Russia and Iran will also be trying to aid Trump’s ongoing effort to increase distrust in our voting systems and president.
Recommended reading
- Professor Garrett Epps explaining how a Colorado court erred in its rejection of the Fourteenth Amendment, which could keep Trump off of state ballots in 2024.
- Essential: Watch historian Heather Cox Richardson discuss the Hamas- Israel war, Biden’s age, student loan relief, extremist Christian efforts, The reason polls are meaningless, strategies of a power seeking minority of voters, the purpose of disinformation ahead, Russian efforts to disrupt our elections, how to recognize the truth tellers in Congressional hearings, whether both sides do the same things, and understanding power and how power works. And why it’s important to think strategically to obtain desired change.
Set aside an hour for this, as she covers a lot of ground here. She does these interactive videocasts on a regular basis that are almost always exercises in great teaching. Along with her newsletters, I regard her to be the leading historian in the country that should be heard and read regularly.
I also found her essays of November 20, and November 21, to be vitally important. And her November 24th message of what she gives thanks for is a cool reminder that our hopes are justified.