Midterm predictions and the first Election Night scorecard
The fortunes we possess that endure beyond every triumph and failure are the people who have loved us, taught us, invested their time, energy, wisdoms and joys in us, enriching us as we grow, sharing our laughter and tears. Some, who have brought us immense pleasure and beauty, are people we never even met.
They’ve healed us and shielded us from deadly diseases and equally deadly men and so many of them don’t even know our names. We cannot begin to calculate the value of these riches we’ve possessed. We understand in our hearts and minds what is lost in their passing and language is at a loss to describe them completely, just as math is useless to calculate their value.
Yet there are some who choose to add nothing to this collective treasure chest. They define value with calculations of nonsensical numbers and demonstrable lies. Claiming winning is everything but displaying naught but empty chests. Their deceit convinces none that they hurt and none feel inferior to them. They deceive only themselves and find no real contentment in their living.
I truly feel sorry for them as they miss the entire point of living at all. It is hard to calculate the sickness that drives them to such madness. They seem possessed by the deadliest disease any man, women or child has ever witnessed, the manmade disease called hate. No one has found the cure. They, too, shall pass from this Earth, leaving no trace of enrichment at all.
And… it’s on with the show.
The money’s been pouring in to Senate races from sources we’re no longer permitted to know. It’s the law of the land to maintain the secrecy about campaign financiers, even though secrecy is the clearest marker of abusers in families and nations.
A conservative dominionist Supreme Court claimed these secret financiers had free speech rights beyond what most citizens will ever possess in their Citizens United and subsequent rulings: the right to speak in a vacuum where none can hear. It’s unrepentant, gutter sucking bullshit from 5 men with rather beastly god complexes promoting elitist mewlings, thinking themselves philosopher kings while the great masses of humanity read only the preservatives list added to the sugary lard filling of a Twinkie.
The results are too predictable.
One billion dollars from secret sources to half a dozen Senate races, per NPR. This is what the country is likely to get in return. As this is also intended as an Election Night scorecard, I’ll move from east to west, just as poll closing times do. My predictions are based on multiple pollings, the direction the numbers are moving in, as well as the prior election histories of each state.
US SENATE FIRST
New Hampshire - Incumbent Maggie Hassan remains 7/10s of a point from 50% support with the Republican Don Bolduc averaging 3.6 pts behind. He’s been steadily rising for one month with the Big Cash infusion but Hassan’s support is holding steady throughout at 49 to 50%. I predict Senator Hassan will hold this seat. If not, it’s gonna be a long dispiriting night for Democrats.
Connecticut - An easy hold for incumbent Democrat Richard Blumenthal. I doubt the money hoarders spent a cent here.
Pennsylvania - One of the hottest races in the country with Attorney General John Fetterman trying to pick up a Republican held seat. Had he not suffered a stroke that’s temporarily limiting his communicating skills, this would have also been a win akin to Hassan’s. Opposing him is a quasi-doctor from out of state, a guy responsible for medical research that featured tortuous experiments on dogs, who holds dual citizenships with loyalty to two notorious autocrats, the bipolar reformer and dissent stomping President Erdogan of Turkey and the Whinocerous Wannabe dictator, Trump.
The wealthiest Americans are desperate to keep this seat in the GOP column and one poll had Dr Oz in a tie with Fetterman in the past week. But Fetterman maintains a 2.2 pt average lead and he’s been rebounding upward for 2 weeks now. I rate this as Too Close to call but leaning Fetterman because even the Republican favoring pollsters have never closed that two point gap. The numbers direction will likely prove critical here as the last minute deciders are likely to jump in based on that perception.
Trump’s so desperate to hold that seat that he’s already declaring their mail balloting as fraudulent and trying to get PA state lawmakers to invalidate more than a million ballots already cast. Tonight Oz and Fetterman will have their only debate. It could hold the key to the outcome.
North Carolina - One of the unexpectedly close Senate races pits the Republican Budd versus the Democratic Beasley. Despite insufficient polling, Budd holds a 3.7 pt average margin and the trend clearly favors him holding this Republican seat. That’s my prediction as Beasley has, to date, been unable to surpass 44% support.
Georgia - Like PA, this is one of the 5 hottest Senate races in the country. The incumbent Reverend Warnock was at 50% in mid summer, fell to 45.3 by early September and has yo-yoed since. Two weeks ago, he’d rebounded to a 5 pt lead over Herschel Walker in the wake of Walker’s abortion scandal. Warnock now holds an average lead of 1%. And like PA, this remains Too Close To Call.
Because there’s a Libertarian in the race, neither candidate is likely to reach 50% which means there’ll be a runoff just like the one Warnock won in 2020. A Republican state before 2020, there’s a whole lot of hidden billionaire money trying to flip that result.
I predict this race won’t be decided till early December and if Senate control depends on this race, I’d call it Leans Slightly Republican.
My reasoning? Stacey Abrams’ race for governor indicates she’ll likely lose by at least 6 points. HOWEVER, and this is an important counter to that trend, early voting indicates Abrams is having success in getting young voters to participate in greater numbers than in her last run in 2018. And Walker’s only drawing less than 3% of Black voters in his race.
Not a single analyst can call this race with any confidence. Enthusiasm runs high in both parties and the results can vary markedly between the November vote and the highly likely December runoff vote.
Florida - Analysts continually call Florida a swing state though since 2004 it’s been fairly consistently a Republican state. Obama won it twice but other statewide races have clearly favored Republicans. Besides Obama’s two wins, no Democratic presidential candidate has won 50% of the vote in Florida since Carter in 1976.
Though it was a close race on Labor Day and only one October poll has occurred there, it sure looks like Little Marco Rubio holds a 6 pt lead over Demings. It makes me sad because Demings is a great candidate but the influence of the popular Governor Desantis - the most viable Republican presidential candidate besides Trump - remains strong. I predict an easy Republican hold on this seat.
Ohio - Moving westward, Ohio’s another Republican state that used to be a swing state. Like the PA race, this has the carpetbagger JD Vance up against a popular Democrat, Tim Ryan. October polliong has ranged from a dead heat to a 4 pt lead for Vance and he’s peaking. But Ryan’s still rising and there’s 10% undecided still.
Also one of the 5 most contested races, it also remains Too Close to Call but based on Ohio’s history I’d add Leans Republican.
But this is already a GOP seat so it doesn’t provide a gain for Republicans if they win it. So long as Hassan prevails in NH, if all the others mentioned so far go Republican, only Georgia provides a GOP pickup. A loss here or in PA would crush their chance at Senate control.
Wisconsin - Different than the others with only 1 to 2 percent undecided, the incumbent Ron Johnson holds an edge between 1 and 3% and just hit a 2 month peak peak. They easily remain within any polls margin of error. It rates another Too Close to Call but with a tiny lean Republican due to the Incumbency factor.
Johnson’s had some gaffes including one on Social Security so political ads here could prove decisive either way. Yet again, this offers no pickup for Republicans. They’re spending a lot of money hanging onto PA, OH and WI for dear life.
Colorado and Washington - Pffft. Easy wins for the Democratic incumbents Michael Bennet (CO) and Patty Murray (WA).
Nevada - This has been a close race throughout with no leads above 3% in polling. Currently it’s a 1 or 2% difference - either way, with at least a 4.4% margin of error in every poll. Currently, polling averages say Laxalt holds a 0.8% lead with 3 to 10% undecided.
A difficult state to poll accurately, it traditionally provides higher Democratic results than polls indicate. And the Democrat Masto is the incumbent. Both candidates are trending upward with Masto closing in in the past 30 days. And in just 3 days of early voting, Democrats are outperforming the Republicans. Technically another Too Close to Call state but leaning to a Democratic hold.
PA, GA, OH, NV are 4 of the 5 states where most of the billion dollars of secret money has been spent and only GA and NV offer an opportunity for a Republican gain. (after writing this, I read that Republican leaders confidently announced last night that they believe these two states are the ones they will flip).
Arizona - This one, for me, draws a lot of attention for numerous reasons. Most of my attention will be on AZ, PA and GA above all, as I firmly believe the GOP has to win all three to gain control of the Senate.
Here, the popular incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly, not known for polarizing statements, no gaffes or scandals to tarnish him, has consistently led throughout. And the state has been trending bluer for several elections now.
But the GOP invested a lot of effort into voter suppression efforts since Biden won it two years ago. And a vocal election denier is leading in the governor’s race, one who’s opposed to any early voting.
Both Kelly and the Republican Blake Masters have trended downward for the past two weeks, indicating an unusual undecided group is growing. From 6% to 11% undecided in the past two weeks!
But Kelly maintains an average 2.5% lead.
The Secretary of State has referred 6 cases of voter intimidation or poll worker harassment to law enforcement already. When all’s said and done, though, the polls and events still indicate Kelly will win re-election. It’s the governor’s race that will draw more of my attention.
But wait, there’s still one more! Could there be an upset in the making in Iowa? 89 year old Chuck Grassley, per two Des Moines Register polls, saw his lead shrink from 8% in July to 3% in October. This is the closest race he’s been in during his 42 year Senate career.
60% of Iowa's likely voters say Grassley's age is a concern, including 64% of independents, per a recent poll. If he wins this term would end at age 95. He’s up against a Navy Admiral Mike Franken.
Here, I’m disagreeing with the professional experts who’ve downgraded the race from solid Grassley to ‘most likely’. I’m downgrading further to ‘Leans Republican.’ The experts are focusing on Grassley too much ionstead of noting that Franken’s a very qualified candidate running a very smart campaign.
Younger voters are key to this race as 89 is too old for them, never mind 95. The only advantage Grassley offers is his seniority assignments to key committees.
I think he’ll hang on by a 2 point margin but wouldn’t at all be surprised if Franken pulls an upset here. Were inflation not an issue, I’d predict a Franken win.
Summary with further refinement
The final step is to review my own assessments over the past two decades since they incorporate the inaccuracy of certain polls that I formerly trusted. Here’s the simplest summary.
NH, CT, CO, WA: solid Democratic holds
NC, FL: solid Republican holds
OH: probable Republican hold
AZ: probable Democratic hold
PA: Fetterman flips a GOP seat if he does well in tonight’s debate.
WI, IA: leans Republican hold
GA, NV remain the hardest to predict. It’s highly likely the GOP will need both to gain Senate control which means we’ll be in suspense till early December. The bottom line: women and Latino voters in NV may hold the key to who controls the Senate next year.
I’ll also predict now that the House will flip to Republican control due to inflation though Democrats will surprise in a few House races where their candidates focused more attention on the SCOTUS assault on women’s rights and voters’ pocketbook issues, instead of the insurrection and Trump.
I believe there’s a 60% chance the Democrats will gain a 51-49 majority in the Senate.
By next Monday’s polls, I may make further refinements if I see anything new and unexpected.
Relax, there are several lights at the end of this tunnel.