Reading signs of the end times. The rear end times.
Amid winterizing my outdoor projects in preparation for the showery season, plus my day job as a caregiver, I had a lot of in-between moments to read and think and read some more, then unthink and rethink till utterly confused. Some of it drips into this newsletter.
My twisted sense of humor is the icing on the pie.
Is hipster punching the new abnormal?
The percentages haven’t changed much in decades. Nor has the snickering at the lame old messaging provided as a public service by the Tennessee Whiskey Association.
Wednesday Whinority Report
The strange ex-president is getting deposed today under oath, in the defamation lawsuit brought by writer E. Jean Carroll. His first line of defense was the legal exemption granted to him as president to say what he wants without legal consequence. Yesterday, however, he repeated the words of defamation as a private citizen on his own money-losing twitterclone, which means her lawyer can seek to amend her lawsuit to include that fresh pronouncement. This is why his lawyers don’t want him to ever speak in front of a judge beyond taking the Fifth.
His greatest wounds have always been self-inflicted despite his claims that his critics are responsible. He may wield the biggest bullhorn and the biggest begging cup but he spends it all on lawyers and settlements due to the same incompetence he demonstrates as a thief that he displayed in more failed businesses than any other president.
Journalist Bob Woodward released audiotapes of Donald Trump that make it clear he knew that the Kim Jong-Un letters he stole were classified calling them "so top secret." Then he told Woodward don’t “say I gave them to you, okay?”
Audiotapes.
Next he’ll say that Donald Trump is an anti-Trumper. <eye-roll>
And how did the FBI discover the strange ex-president was deliberately moving top secret documents into hidey places? His handsomely paid Diet Coke gofer (who initially resisted telling the truth) ultimately told the truth.
As I said, the strange ex-president’s greatest wounds have always been self-inflicted.
His celeb-worshipping followers will call him a rat, snitch and worse, but faced with legal jeopardy and cognizant that the posse’s closing in on his boss, he’s aware that after Election Day, Trump is likely to be grabbed by the posse.
This, from historian and Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer, Jon Meacham:
Meacham said he thinks that there's a greater chance that the US could see more "civil chaos" now than during the Great Depression, "when there was such a lack of confidence in our institutions."
"Tragically, I think we will see more of civil chaos. I think we are going to see it with violence," he said. "I do not believe we're going to see the massing of great armies in the way we did in the 19th century. But we are at greater risk of that kind of civil conflict far more, I believe, than we were even in the early 1930s during the Depression, when there was such a lack of confidence in our institutions."
"And part of it is that there is a passionate minority that is putting its own interests ahead of those of the nation," Meacham continued. "And without the capacity to both vote perhaps against your short-term interest, without the capacity to recognize that there is a larger force that requires your support of the Constitution over your narrow partisan interests, without that, then we will continue to descend into ever greater chaos."
With potential 2024 election thieves on ballots in 29 states, some will likely win. Should they ultimately rule against the majority of voters in 2024, the public’s trust in the election process will be severely eroded. Couple that with the public erosion of trust in the Supreme Court after its June rulings, and the stage is set for a government and election system that few on any side will trust as legit.
The Extremist Right now embracing neo-fascism, the economic populists, those that feel the Vatican pulls the strings of the majority of the SCOTUS, with divisions being further fueled by dark-money from some of the richest men on Earth certainly will kindle sporadic acts of violence.
It’s not really news if the House flips to the GOP in 3 weeks, a very common outcome in any midterm. Times of high unemployment or high inflation increase the odds of that outcome. So the real focus is on the Senate races.
On the anniversary of the January 6 attack on the Capitol earlier this year, Meacham discussed the historical significance of the insurrection, referring to it as an "inflection point" in US history.
"It's either a step on the way to the abyss, or it is a call to arms, figuratively, for citizens to engage and say, 'No, we are more important," Meacham said. "The work we are about is more important than the will and the whim of a single man, or a single party or a single interest.'"
"To lose this gift through selfishness and a greed for power through autocratic impulse would be beyond tragic," he added. "I don't believe that's going to happen, but I believe we're as close to that as we have been since Sumter," referring to the battle that started the Civil War.
How goes the Senate races?
Quite a few are close. Herschel Walker still trails in Georgia to the incumbent minister by an average 2.4 pt margin. JD Vance is up an average of 2.5 pts against Tim Ryan in Ohio. Mark Kelly maintains his lead in Arizona but the race has tightened to a 2.5 pt average, as does John Fetterman (3.2 pts) in Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, Budd holds a 2.5 pt average lead over Beasley. Incumbent Ron Johnson’s been slipping in Wisconsin but averages a 2.8 pt lead over Mandela Barnes.
In Nevada, incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is behind Adam Laxalt by 1.8 pts but Laxalt’s setting a new record in low support from one key constituency: his family. Fourteen of his family members have endorsed Masto, which is a pretty huge hint for the voters there.
Polling averages come from Real Clear Politics. All those Senate races are within the polling margin of error, so none can be called as yet, but Fetterman’s looking pretty good. And the only Senate races that could flip the Senate to the GOP are Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. If the GOP lose one of the other four races, they’ll need to win 2 of these 3.
In governor races, Democrat Tina Kotek remains behind Christine Drazan (+3.0) here in Oregon. In Oklahoma, Democrat Joy Hofmeister’s opened up a small lead over the incumbent, Kevin Stitt, who was leading in September. Tim Michels is in a tie with incumbent Democrat Tony Evers, in Wisconsin. Republican and potential election thief Kari Lake is up 1.6 pts over Katie Hobbs. In Kansas, incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly has a 2 pt lead over Derek Schmidt though there’s only been one poll there so there’s no way to assess if either have momentum.
Incumbent Democrate Steve Sisolak is closing the gap against Joe Lombardo (+1.8) in Nevada. So Democrats Hofmeister and Sisolak plus Republican Michels are the only governor races where some momentum is visible.
But note: like Kari Lake in Arizona, Wisconsin’s Michels is an election denier too, so he’s also a potential 2024 election thief. In three states - Arizona, Michigan and Alabama - election deniers are running for all three of the positions that can impact the vote counting (Secretary of State, Attorney General and Governor). Since Alabama’s solidly Republican, the other two are more concerning, but Governor Whitmer’s got a solid lead in Michigan, while Lake’s lead in Arizona means that’s the principal one to watch for its 3 state positions. It’s not the only troubling state, however, as Republicans have had the upper hand in Secretary of State races in the country for the past 12 years and currently have a 24-11 advantage there.
Rather than a music video, yesterday’s PBS Frontline report on Michael Flynn is must-see TV. From Frontline:
In “Michael Flynn’s Holy War,” FRONTLINE and the Associated Press examine how the retired three-star general and first national security adviser to former President Donald Trump has emerged as a leader in a far-right movement that seeks to put its brand of Christianity at the center of American civic life and institutions and is attracting election deniers, conspiracists and extremists from around the country. Drawing on interviews with 125 people, including Flynn’s family, friends, critics, current and former colleagues — and Flynn himself — the documentary illustrates how Flynn’s influence has grown since the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol — and how his pedigree and military career, combined with his connection to high-powered, well-financed political groups, have allowed him to travel the country and advance his movement since January 6. In the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections, “Michael Flynn’s Holy War” is a revealing look at the rise of one of the Republican party’s most active and polarizing political allies, and what his growing influence might mean for future U.S. elections.
You’ll need 53 minutes to view it but I highly recommend you do soon.
Aww jeez...Another Apocalypse?
The Flynn stuff is really scary: I've always known religious nutters (coming from a family of 'em), and this area is infested with retired military, many of whom seem to itching to be Nazis.