Seems like an endless week of Reruns, doesn't it?
The news on Tuesday was mostly boring. The House Republicans remain severely divided. The candidate they nominated - Tom Emmer - drew active opposition from Trump so, lacking the votes, he withdrew. The guy with the next most votes - Mike Johnson of LA - was a chief architect of the Trump fake election certification scheme in the House so he gains a lot of support from the Crazy 8. The less extreme may consider him too closely tied to Gaetz to vote him in.
(Louisiana Rep Mike Johnson)
Johnson is actively supported by Trump, so we’ll see today if he’s the House Republican’s puppeteer. Should Johnson fail in his Wednesday noon vote, that’d clear the way for an actual compromise candidate. It’s very clear that the Crazy 8s are fine with this impasse as it suits their desire to shut down the government in 23 days.
The urgency of military aid to the two biggest conflicts demands a swift resolution to this Speaker soap opera which I expect will come before next Monday.
The bigger news is the grant of immunity given Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows. Understandably, many observers jumped to the conclusion that Meadows had flipped and was providing testimony in the 3 times he was questioned that would implicate Trump and secure a conviction. But there’s too many possibilities and insufficient detail to make many preliminary conclusions.
Meadows has indicated before that he told Trump he’d lost, so of the inner circle, it may just be that he’d be the most difficult to gain a conviction of. Since Meadows wrote a book post-insurrection that was filled with false assertions, prosecutors might only want an admission that his book doesn’t match his beliefs and contained falsehoods so his book assertions couldn’t be as easily used by defense lawyers for the other defendants. It’s simply too early for the public to know the strategy behind this grant of immunity.
I consider it extremely unlikely that the remaining inner circle members will get a deal unless they have airtight evidence to reveal. Trump, Giuliani and Eastman appear to be the most complicit co-conspirators who actively and repeatedly broke the law. Clark’s the only one of that inner bunch who might be useful to flip for added evidence against that top level trio.
I don’t think Willis indicted 19 while planning to secure 19 convictions. Pursuing the top 3 or 4 at the national level and 3 or 4 at the state level makes more sense as a broad deterrent to others who might want to commit criminal acts to steal elections in the future. So it’s wait-and-see with this grant of immunity.
And speaking about the plea agreement quartet, here’s some useful info: some people are more equal than others.
Here’s a brief review of the political and judicial schedule from now through 2024
October - December 2023: The completion of the ongoing NYC bank fraud trial.
November 7 2023: State elections in KY, MS, NJ, RI, OH, VA plus city elections in Houston, Philadelphia and elsewhere.
November 18: LA election.
November 21: Special election for UT 2nd District
November 28: Gubernatorial runoff in MS.
Dec 4 - Trump has a court appearance in the hush money case. His former attorney, Michael Cohen, is appearing currently helping to build the case against Trump.
January 2024: The second defamation (civil) trial filed by E. Jean Carroll will occur. Trump has appealed the first verdict that she won, that ordered him to pay her $5 million. I don’t know when that appeal will occur.
Primary season also kicks off for Republicans with Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries.
February 2024: 4 more GOP primaries occur. No legal actions scheduled but Fani Willis may seek earlier trial dates for some as her defendant pool sinks. While the inner circle would like to slow the court efforts till after the November Election Day, other defendants may agree to earlier resolutions at any point between November and February.
March 2, 3, 4: Three more primaries/caucuses for the GOP.
March 4: the DOJ prosecution of the January 6 insurrection defendants begins in DC.
March 5: Fifteen states and American Samoa conduct Super Tuesday contests. Both Biden and Trump should have enough delegates after today to get most other challengers out of the races.
March 9, 10, 12, 19, 23: More primaries & caucuses. At least 35 states will be done by the 23rd.
March 25: Hush money case (falsifying business records) begins in NYC. Most federal and state trials should be completed before May 1st.
May 20: Classified documents case begins in Florida. By this date, only 10 state primaries remain to be settled.
June: SCOTUS decisions for the year, particularly after June 15.
July 15-18: Republican National Convention in Milwaukee WI. DOJ prosecutors would like to have all trials and appeals completed before the convention. That will grant the GOP more time to nominate an alternate candidate if Trump gets barred from running. The classified documents case is the only one where appeals might occur after Election Day.
August 19-22: Democratic National Convention in Chicago IL.
November 5 2024: Election Day
Franklin, TN, a dozen miles south of Nashville, is home to many of the country’s best known country music stars. A very unusual city election scenario played out yesterday. One mayoral candidate had been openly touting the support she had from white supremacists while other extremists sought other offices.
Voters there soundly rejected the mayoral candidate and three MAGA alderman candidates.
Another Russian CEO has died. Just another ‘coincidental’ death; the 9th since Putin began his war on Ukraine 20 months ago.