The 2022 Midterm Senate outlook with 4 weeks to go: cloudy with a chance of goombahs
Let’s start with the US senate seat from Georgia. In his 12 year NFL career, Herschel Walker gained 8,225 yards, averaging 685.4 yds per year. That’s the 43rd best of all time. Five times, his team made it to the post-season but none made it past the second game. In the 7 postseason games he appeared in, he averaged 19.3 yards per game.
From Wikipedia (I added the bolding):
He founded Savannah-based H. Walker Enterprises in 2002 as an umbrella company for most of his other business ventures, the largest of which was Renaissance Man Food Services.[93]
Walker has a history of exaggerating the number of people employed by and the assets of his companies; the failure of several business enterprises led to creditors bringing lawsuits.[93][94] Walker touted Renaissance Man Food Services as one of the largest minority-owned meat processors in the nation, with $70 million in annual sales.[93][92][91] In subsequent deposition testimony in a lawsuit, however, Walker gave far lower figures, saying that his company averaged about $1.5 million in annual profits from 2008 and 2017.[94]
And:
In 2009, Walker told the media that Renaissance Man Food Services had over 100 employees.[93] In 2018, Walker told the media that Renaissance Man Food Services had "over 600 employees."[93][96] In 2020, Renaissance Man Food Services informed the U.S. government that it had eight employees.[93][94]
That last correct admission came when he applied for a PPP loan.
In April 2020, Renaissance Man Food Services applied for a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,[97] and the company ultimately received two PPP loans totaling $180,000 (of which $111,300 was forgiven).[93] On Twitter in April 2020, Walker mocked "big companies" that received PPP money, suggesting that they were "giving back" the money due to being "ashamed".[98] This was despite Walker being a board member of the Sotherly Hotel Group, owner of the Georgian Terrace Hotel and other hotels; the group received over $9 million of PPP loans in April 2020 while firing 90% of its hotel staff, according to company documents submitted to the U.S. government.[98] According to government records, Walker was paid $247,227 in total from Sotherly from 2016 to 2021.[98]
Walker said that "part of its corporate charter" was to donate 15% of profits to charites. However, none of the four charities that Walker named as beneficiaries confirmed they actually received any donations.[99]
I keep wondering why is truth so hard for some people?
Last year ex-President Trump encouraged him to run for the Georgia Senate seat held by Reverend Ralph Warnock. He agreed and had to move from Texas to Georgia to be eligible.
More Wikipedia:
In June 2022, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution found that Walker's claims about working in law enforcement were either false or unverifiable. Despite his claim of being an honorary deputy in the Cobb County Police Department, the department did not have any record of Walker working with them.[117] In 2019, Walker said he "spent time at Quantico at the FBI training school" and was "an agent" when, in reality, Walker lacked the bachelor's degree required for FBI training.[117] Previously, in 1989, Walker told the media that he "had fun" while attending an FBI school in Quantico for a week, speaking of an "obstacle course and you shoot at targets".[117]
It lists some of his positions on key issues:
Abortion
In May 2022, Walker said that he opposes abortion, and wants no exceptions to abortion bans. He also called for more money to promote adoption and to support single parents. "You never know what a child is going to become. And I've seen some people, they've had some tough times, but I always said, 'No matter what, tough times make tough people.'"[125][126] When asked about the impact of the issue on the November 2022 election, Walker described abortion rights as among the "things that people are not concerned about".[127] In September 2022, Walker endorsed legislation proposed by Senator Lindsey Graham that would ban all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy nationwide.[128]
Yesterday, The Daily Beast published allegations from a woman who said that Walker got her pregnant and paid for her abortion in 2009, when they were dating and he was unmarried, with both of them wanting the abortion.[129] The Daily Beast elaborated that the woman, whom they did not name, supported the allegation by producing a picture of a $700 personal check from Walker, a get-well card from Walker with what The Daily Beast stated was his signature, and a $575 receipt for an abortion.[129][130] The Daily Beast also stated that it corroborated the story with a friend of the woman, who "took care of her in the days after the procedure".[124] Walker responded to the story by stating: "I deny this in the strongest terms possible", and said he would sue The Daily Beast for defamation.[122] Walker went on to tell the media: "I never asked anyone to get an abortion. I never paid for an abortion"; and when asked about the check, Walker responded: "I give money to people all the time, because I’m always helping people".[124]
Gun Control:
When asked about his position on gun control legislation, he replied "what I like to do is see it and everything and stuff."[119]
His personal life has been more troublesome. He was married to his college sweetheart for 19 years.
In filing for divorce in 2001, Walker's wife accused him of "physically abusive and extremely threatening behavior." After the divorce, she told the media that, during their marriage, Walker pointed a pistol at her head and said: "I'm going to blow your f'ing brains out."[94] She also said he had used knives to threaten her.[149] In 2005, a restraining order was imposed on Walker regarding Grossman, after Grossman's sister stated in an affidavit that Walker told her "unequivocally that he was going to shoot my sister Cindy and her [new] boyfriend in the head."[94] As a result, a temporary gun-owning ban was also issued to Walker by a judge.[94] Walker attributed his aberrant behavior with his wife and others to his dissociative identity disorder for which he was diagnosed in 2001.[149][94]
His ex-wife says she saw none of his multiple personalities till the last 3 years of their 19 years together. He says he mostly can’t remember the times when his alternate personalities were violent. But his memory is (conveniently) clear when his 2009 girlfriend claimed he paid for her abortion.
And yesterday:
Walker's adult son Christian stated on social media that "every family member of Herschel Walker asked him not to run for office because we all knew (some of) his past … He decided to give us the middle finger and air out all of his dirty laundry in public, while simultaneously lying about it".[122][123][124]
That’s in addition to the two kids he’s had out of wedlock which only was discovered by the media this summer. Walker has also previously claimed he was his high school valedictorian, which he wasn’t. He claimed he graduated in the top 1% of his college class but he never graduated from college. He’s since claimed he never previously claimed he graduated.
POLLING IN THE PAST 15 DAYS:
Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Walker 46, Warnock 44
Marist: Warnock 47, Walker 45
Data For Progress: 46-46 tie
CBS News/YouGov: Warnock 51, Walker 49
Fox News: Warnock 47, Walker 43
In other words, despite his personal, business and campaign record, Walker’s in a race that’s still too close to call.
Here’s the other important Senate races, with polls from the past 15 days:
WISCONSIN, where incumbent Republican Ron Johnson faces Democrat Mandela Barnes, currently the state’s Lieutenant Governor.
Emerson: Johnson 48, Barnes 44
Spectrum News/Siena: Barnes 48, Johnson 47
Trafalgar Group: Johnson 49, Barnes 47
PPP: 47-47 tie
Fox News: Johnson 50, Barnes 45
Also too close to call but like Georgia, the incumbent has a tiny edge.
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NORTH CAROLINA, with incumbent Republican Ted Budd facing Democrat Cheri Beasley.
The Hill/Emerson: Budd 46, Beasley 43
Civitas/Cygnal: 44-44 tie
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA: Budd 43, Beasley 42
Same as the others.
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OHIO, with Republican J.D. Vance facing Democrat Congressman Tim Ryan.
Marist: Vance 48, Ryan 47
Spectrum News/Siena: Ryan 46, Vance 43
No incumbent here, so this previously Republican seat could go either way.
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NEVADA, with incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto facing former Nevada Attorney General Republican Adam Laxalt.
Data For Progress: Laxalt 47, Masto 46
Insider Advantage: Laxalt 46, Masto 43
Trafalgar Group: Laxalt 47, Masto 43
Nevada Independent: Laxalt 45, Masto 43
Looks like Masto’s in a little trouble here. Past election polls in this state typically underestimate the Democrat vote, however so it’s also too close to call.
_____
NEW HAMPSHIRE, with incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan facing Republican Don Bolduc.
Four polls in the past 3 weeks have Hassan leading by 7 to 11 points. A fifth by the (Republican) Trafalgar Group has it at Hassan 48, Bolduc 45
Clearly leans to a Hassan win, but still not safe.
_____
Both the Washington and Arizona Senate seats seem relatively safe with most polls showing 5 or more point leads for the Democrat incumbents. Florida and Utah show incumbent Republicans with healthier leads. Of the other 6 that I outlined, 3 are GOP seats being defended and 3 are Dem seats.
That leaves just one more close one.
PENNSYLVANIA: Currently a GOP seat, Democrat Attorney General John Fetterman faces Republican Mehmet Oz. This race has gotten the most publicity with both Fetterman drawing attention while recovering from a stroke and Oz a TV celebrity with no previous ties to Pennsylvania.
Franklin & Marshall: 47-43
Marist: 51-44
WTXF-TV/Insider Advantage: 45-42
Fox News: 48-44
The Hill/Emerson: 45-43
USA Today/Suffolk: 46-40
All 6 have Fetterman leading by 2 to 7 points. The USA Today one was released today with a 6 point edge.
But there’s a new development there that I think will destroy Oz’s candidacy.
He failed to provide oversight for medical experiments on dogs that he was responsible for and the dogs experienced a stunning amount of cruelty. (Caution: it’s hard to read what was done to the dogs)
He’s refusing to comment on this so far but he won’t be able to put it to rest. Watch the polls a week from now reflect this.
A lot can change in the next few weeks, and turnout will be important. If the GOP loses the Pennsylvania seat, they have to flip two others to win the Senate and only the Masto and Warnock seats appear to be at risk.
For now, it’s just too close to call for control of the Senate.