The Likely Final Election Forecast and some general interest stuff because no other title is working when I have Title Block
I have to regularly remind myself that Twitter isn’t real.
It’s just another stage, filled with bad actors doing bad villain impressions. In their bathrooms at night they practice snarly villainy sounds to their mirrors: yes, that bad. Musk is the nerdy privileged frat boy portraying dominant lead characters desperately hoping not to be seen as a nerdy privileged frat boy. It’s like watching a slow motion Tesla wreck.
Via Axios:
Former President Trump on Monday filed an emergency application asking the Supreme Court to temporarily block a House committee from obtaining his tax returns.
The big picture: Trump has been fighting for years to block the release of his tax returns to the House Ways and Means Committee.
Since a federal appeals court refused to hear the case, the strange ex-president is seeking to delay every court action against him long enough to get some dismissed, testing his SCOTUS judges for loyalty and confident in his loyalists about to take majority control in the House where actions and investigations into his crimes can be killed.
Annnnnnd: November 1st, John Roberts grants the delay. Such a good boy. Here, have a dawg biscuit, Johnny.
This statement from 5 years ago seems quite relevant today amid the vitriol after a kidnapping and assassination attempt.
My Maybe Final Election predictions with One Week to Go:
These are based on poll averaging using both Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight with polls aggregated through Tuesday November 1. Five Thirty Eight assesses the success rates of many pollsters every two years and grades them from A+ to D. So my predictions are based on the trends (is #2 closing the gap fast enough?), how current the polls are, and those pollster ratings.
Last minute deciders often go with the trends and I note the fast closers below as the ones that still could change by Election Day one week from now.
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Close Senate races:
Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) holds onto his seat.
Georgia: Warnock closing momentum makes this a Leaning (D) seat hold, too.
Nevada: Whoever gets out the vote best wins this D seat, remaining Too Close To Call.
New Hampshire: Dem hold here.
Ohio: Still looks like a Vance win for a R seat hold. Liz Cheney endorsed his D rival, Tim Ryan, today.
Pennsylvania: Oz took lead post-debate so Leaning (R) seat Hold but an early Election Night one to watch. But don’t be surprised if it’s not called Tuesday or Wednesday, as it will be close.
Washington: Shifted from Definitely Dem to Likely Dem seat hold with Patti Murray re-elected.
Wisconsin: Another (R) seat hold.
Summary: PA, GA and NV remain the three to watch. The GOP needs two of the three to gain majority control of the Senate.
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Close Governor Races
Arizona: major election denier Kari Lake (R) likely wins a hold here, though Hobbs has been closing fast. Liz Cheney endorsed Hobbs and the (D) Secretary of State candidate today.
Colorado: easy Polis (D) hold.
Florida: DeSantis (R) running away with this hold.
Georgia: Kemp (R) an easy hold.
Kansas: one poll, six weeks ago makes this Too Close to Call. Needs more polls.
Maine: Mills (D) easily re-elected.
Maryland: a D pickup.
Massachusetts: a D pickup.
Michigan: Easy Whitmer (D) hold.
Minnesota: Underpolled but leans D hold. I prefer to make it Too Close To Call.
Nevada: Slight edge to Lombardo (R) to flip this from Sisolak (D). Historically Nevada polls undercount the D vote, though, so Too Close To Call.
New Mexico - Grisham likely re-elected for a D seat Hold. But Roncetti closing fast.
New York: Hochul (D) an easy hold.
Oklahoma: Stitt (R) likely to be reelected here.
Oregon: Drazan (R) maintains a 2 pt lead but the declining support for right wing Democrat-turned-Independent Betsy Johnson could easily tip it back to the D seat it currently is. Too close to call.
Pennsylvania: Shapiro (D) for an easy hold.
Texas: Abbott (R) wins re-election easily.
Wisconsin: Evers (D) is Too Close To Call. I think the trend in this race and this state will tip it to Michels (R).
Summary: The GOP is likely to pick up one seat and could get as many as 6. The Democrats pick up two seats and could end up with a net gain of 1 or a net loss of four. And these races could have the greatest potential impact on the vote count in 2024.
*Note*: The attempted kidnapping and murder of Nancy Pelosi is the biggest late October surprise that could swing some of the close races if voters decide the violence has to stop.
Which is further complicated by Trump’s minions’ invasions into voting machines in CO, GA, MI and AZ in 2020, as the Washington Post detailed well.
Liz Cheney speaking to Judy Woodruff of PBS today (Via Raw Story):
"The committee is in discussion with President Trump's attorneys and he has an obligation to comply," she explained. "We treat this and take this very seriously."
"This is not a situation where the committee is going to put itself at the mercy of Donald Trump in terms of his efforts to create a circus," the lawmaker added. "We haven't made determinations about the format itself but it will be done under oath; it will be done potentially over multiple days. We have significant questions based on the evidence that we've developed and what we know already about the extent to which he was personally and directly in every aspect of the effort."
Cheney also warned against electing Republican election officials.
"Once you give power to someone who won't respect an election, you have to ask if we're going to get any future elections," she said.
And speaking of 2024, Lieutenant No Class Roger Stone fired a shot at Ron DeSantis for having the audacity to think about challenging Trump.
Here’s a great closing PSA:
This warning from the strange ex-president’s niece is more succinct.
