The Old Notion of Hell is Rather Quaint
Today there are many hells to contemplate
Every angle of Putin’s war is well covered but there’s way more out there. The map of Russian encroachment displays a number of potential Putin strategies.
What’s certain:
1) Kherson is now fallen and completely under the control of the Russian military.
2) Mariupol is under heavy bombardment and is close to falling. When it does, Russia will have a complete line to resupply Crimea by land, a known goal of Putin.
3) The pretense that Russia will only be attacking military targets is over. They’re hitting civilian homes, hospitals, schools and recreation facilities.
What’s certainly possible:
1) Putin is lying about his real goals. Instead of taking over all of Ukraine, he may want to split the country in two with Russia claiming ownership of the Eastern half, with the Dnipro River as a nominal dividing line, from Chernobyl and Kiev to Kherson.
2) Despite the claims that the 40 mile convoy a little north of Kiev is stalled due to Ukrainan resistance and Soviet incompetence, perhaps they’re waiting for troops to finish off the second largest city of Kharkiv, who will then provide a convoy south of Kiev, to encircle and lay siege to it.
3) The circle and bombard siege approach can block weapons from reaching the Ukrainian military. It can also choke off food and humanitarian re-supplies. City by city.
4) Perhaps Putin’s generals are deliberately slow-walking or botching the offensive because they really don’t want Putin’s war. Or maybe there’s a growing number of Russian troops deserting.
After France’s Macron spoke with Putin today he warned that ’the worst is yet to come.’ The least surprising warning ever since the current invasion is only 7 days old and over 1 million refugees have left Ukraine, with more than half gone to Poland and Hungary.
What will be worse:
1) The attacks on major Ukrainian cities.
2) The UN estimates there’ll eventually be 4 million refugees.
3) The financial costs of EU and NATO troop movements, arms headed to Ukraine and absorbing the incoming refugees will strain the economies of numerous European countries, which means additional political ramifications for those governments.
4) There’s the potential for Russia to weaponize key exports that remain for them: oil, natural gas, titanium and wheat could see price jumps, causing additional inflationary strain on Europe especially.
Emerging concerns:
1) Consider the population sizes of different continents:
Asia 4.65 billion
Africa 1.38 billion
Europe 0.75 billion
North America 0.5 billion
All remaining continents 0.58 billion
So there’s 7.78 billion people on the planet. 6.03 billion are in Asia and Africa, 77% of the global population. Europe is just 9.6% of the world. And the incredible global response seems a bit outsized to Asia, Africa and the Middle East where most of the world’s series of wars have been occurring for the past 76 years.
Those bigger populations are noticing that. Was there ever such a spotlight on the heroics of the Koreans, Vietnamese, Cambodians, Laotians, Afghanis, Iraqis, Iranians, Syrians, or the folks in the Congo, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and more? Why not? Are they the wrong race or do they worship the wrong god?
Maybe it’s more about economics and GDPs but perceptions of the people in those countries matter. There’s a double standard going on.
2) Putin may seriously plan to utilize nukes against someone. He likely will avoid nuclear winter scenarios that would result from a war with the US or the nuclear arm countries of the UK, France and Israel.
But what would the nuclear NATO countries do if he used a nuke on Ukraine or Moldova? A nuclear response would also lead to nuclear winter.
3) There’s also the risk that there’s a bigger global picture that’s being overlooked.In the past 45 years, the Sleeping Giant, China, has begun to shake the world with its economic power. Have the actions of the US, the EU and NATO forced Russia into an alliance with our most powerful economic competitor?
Consider the 12 largest populations in the world as potential labor forces, or as potential armies:
a) China 1.44 billion people under an autocratic regime
b) India 1.4 billion under an autocratic regime, historically aligned with Russia
c) USA 334 million in a democratic republic
d) Indonesia 278.3 million, a democratic republic that is largely neutral. With the largest Muslim population in the world
e) Pakistan 228 million under an autocratic regime, aligned with China, second largest Muslim population in the world.
f) Brazil 215.1 million in a democratic republic, president remained neutral in the US-China trade war
g) Nigeria 214.6 million, a democratic republic, more pro-African or neutral globally, also a lot of government corruption.
h) Bangladesh 167.4 million, a parliamentary democracy closely aligned with India, but generally friendly with countries across the globe. Third largest Muslim population in the world.
i) Russia 146 million under an autocratic Putin
j) Mexico 131.2 million, a democratic republic, largely neutral in foreign affairs with the US as its largest trading partner.
k) Japan 125.8 million, a constitutional monarchy, led by a Prime Ministor selected by the monarch. Closely aligned with the US and strained relations with Russia and China.
l) Ethiopia 119.7 million, a parliamentary republic but very authoritarian. Ties with multiple countries but often dealing with internal revolts.
That’s 4.81 billion people. The US is closest to Japan and Mexico, so the trio comprises 590 million people. China, Pakistan, and Russia combined represent 1.81 billion, triple the size of the US trio.
Of course, much of Europe is aligned with the US and a global hot war would be difficult to weight these alliances for military purposes. While Russia and the US are the two nuclear superpowers, the labor pool of China is likely to surpass the once dominant economic strength of the US.
The US is trying to make inroads with India, but just like its troubling alliance with rights-hostile Saudi Arabia and a few others, India’s human rights record is substantively bad.
The point I’m trying to make here is that the post-Cold War era indicates old habits are hard to break and NATO’s expansive efforts could provide more negative consequences ahead. Yes, the idea of more representative democracies has always sounded appealling to our citizenry. So does the idea of lasting romantic relationships. But reality can often be far more depressing and damaging.
Remember the notions we had about an Arab Spring with more democratic Middle East nations ahead? That was sold to us by the neocons and it sure didn’t pan out. Instead we got long wars, long ccupations, corrupt puppet governments, close to a million more people dead and likely fewer allies in the region than we had in 2000.
Sure, we have the best intentions. We want Ukraine, Moldova, and the rest of Europe safe from Russian aggression. But in doing so the current way, will we lose some of the strengths we’re known for and be weaker overall?
This pessimistic political scientist lays out the case that we’re on a downward path. Definitely a read we all should consider.
Useful suggestions? Just as EU nations have reacted swiftly to offer easy asylum for fleeing Ukranian refugees, we should offer the same to any Russian soldier willing to desert.
On another issue entirely, the first of the trials of January 6th insurrectionists and terrorists began Monday. And one OathKeeper struck a deal that included an admission of participation in a seditious conspiracy, the most serious crime to date.
The detail of his claims is stunning. Via ABC News:
The plea agreement directly implicates Oath Keeper founder and militia leader Stewart Rhodes, among others, in a conspiratorial plot to stop the transfer of power ahead of President Joe Biden's inauguration, with Rhodes predicting "a bloody and desperate fight."
"They used encrypted and private communications, equipped themselves with a variety of weapons, donned combat and tactical gear, and were prepared to answer Rhodes's call to take up arms," reads the agreement between James and prosecutors.
James acknowledged he and others collected firearms at hotels on the outskirts of Washington, D.C., and were ready to use them to prevent Biden from becoming president.
James admitted that he was instructed along with other Oath Keepers to "be prepared, if called upon, to report to the White House grounds to secure the perimeter and use lethal force if necessary against anyone who tried to remove President Trump from the White House, including the National Guard or other government actors" who might be sent to remove him.
One individual, unnamed in the agreement, messaged James on New Year's Eve 2020 saying they had "friends not far from DC with a lot of weapons and ammo."
"That might be helpful, but we have a shitload of [quick reaction forces] on standby with an arsenal," James responded.
And note that James was serving as Roger Stone’s chauffeur as well.
We live in dangerous times.
The sole good news is that a few hours ago, Ukraine reached a tentative agreement with Russia to organize safe corridors for civilians to evacuate and for humanitarian supplies to be delivered. Cease-fires would be observed where safe corridors are set up.
And hearing so many mentions that Putin is acting like Dr. Strangelove I just couldn’t resist this cover of a Depeche Mode tune.