The Viral Menu
Plus a note from the management
At the Crunchiness Cafe, we take pride in the quality of the information we serve and how uniformly attractive our servers are to people with good taste. The past week, however, saw our principal staff person somewhat sidelined and since he /me is actually doing all the things here, with discreet costume changes, we had to close down a few days.
In clearer terms, I promised 4 newsletters a week but only delivered 2. The second was very long, but that’s no excuse.
A computer switch-out was partly responsible as I’ve had to keep making adjustments to access all my standard information sources. Most of it was caused by exhaustion, though. In the past two months, I’ve been afflicted with a bad bout of insomnia, sleeping between 0 and 3.5 hours a night. Last week, a visit to the doctor means this is now being remedied, beginning two days ago.
This coming week will be busy with information galore. So I intend to increase my output for a week or two, to make up for the two editions I didn’t get out. You may even see more than one newsletter a day.
I apologize for last week’s shortage but will still deliver. And it sure feels great to get out of the mental fog that was impacting me.
_____________________
The Covid Menu on tap today:
Appetizers
Our Origin Platter - The delegation of scientists visiting Wuhan, China to try and determine the source of the pandemic outbreak will be departing Wednesday. Indicators suggest they’ll issue a preliminary report tomorrow. At least one in the investigative group says they’ve found strong clues about several things after investigating the produce market the Chinese government claimed is the source and the laboratory where viruses are studied, among other places. While it’s not likely to produce a completely definitive assertion that it began at one specific place, I anticipate it will help settle the question of whether the virus escaped from or was deliberately launched from a lab, or whether it came from a ‘wet’ market. While the Chinese delayed the start of the investigation that the World Health Org wanted for about 9 months, the group has indicated they’ve had access to a lot and are pleased at the cooperation they’ve been getting in recent weeks. $10
The Internationale - Yesterday was the 1st anniversary of the first covid death in the US. It also concluded the process of getting past the Autumn Wave, as Virginia reached Day 21 in its decline. Every state and US territory is now officially in decline in new cases and hospitalizations. A decline in daily deaths is visible in all but one or two (they tend to lag new case peaks by 3 to 4 weeks.). Some states have been in decline for 13-14 weeks and have bottomed, where they’re staying low and flat. But the Internationale comes with 4 newish mutant strains that originated in the UK, South Africa, Brazil and California. The South African strain displays some resistance to the Astra Zeneca vaccine but that vaccine has not yet been approved for use in te US. More worrisome is the UK mutant in the near term, because it replicates faster. Instead of 21 days, it doubles in 9 to 10 days. In Florida and California close to 200 cases of the UK variant have been identified. Which means it has the potential to reach 3200/day in 36-40 days. And huge numbers every 9 or 10 days after that.
Vaccine distribution will lower those numbers though. As will standard mitigation measures used before vaccines arrived. $12
Signage from Swine & Steel BBQ restaurant outlet in Seattle locations.
Entree
With the beginning of the Senate impeachment trial tomorrow, the report from the Wuhan scientists can easily be overlooked. It’s still extremely important because the same nationalism driving other political issues is present here. Te last president constantly referred to it as the China virus, implying that the Chinese government deliberately weaponized the virus against us. In doing so, he likely delayed the cooperative investigative effort that’s going on now, as the Chinese government was uncertain what his motives were and what trade repercussions could follow.
With President Biden in place, their government started up the cooperative effort shortly after the November election.
If WHO scientists determine that covid came from the market (perhaps via pangolins, a form of anteater that has entered the diet of some Chinese), scientists in multiple countries will be able to figure out how to better limit human exposures to covid or other viruses to nip future potential pandemics from occurring. Thus, it is a very big thing.
As to the new mutant strains afoot in the UK and US, the race is on to get lots of people vaccinated swiftly. And while state efforts differ, overall, we’re getting 1.3 million vaccinated daily which is an amazing number. The more that can be manufactured, the greater our chances of getting higher numbers vaccinated daily, as the Biden pandemic team has developed better coordination plans with the states and the National Guard is actively helping in some states.
There are some bumps in that effort Biden asked everyone to mask up for 100 days and over the weekend, Iowa’s governor relaxed masking requirements around Day 16. The Supremes relaxed requirements limiting group sizes for churches, which drew an objection from Justice Kagan who believe the right of the larger public safety supersedes freedom of religion temporarily.
But Biden’s new head of the pandemic team, Dr. Fauci, is advising us to double up our masks. Instead of bandanas and cloth masks, that means he thinks we should all have triple layer cloth masks or masks with better seals against the face akin to those that hospital workers wear.
N95 masks typically cost $4 or more each and should be discarded after each use, not washed and recycled. There’s also KN95 masks which are similar but are made in China and Japan. The CDC hasn’t signed off on those being as effective but other US agencies have approved them for emergency use while further mask testing is done. Type in ‘covid mask reviews’ in your search engine of choice so you can make the best informed choice that you can.
My take: the EUA temporary designation should suffice for the KN95 masks, which are cheaper ($2 and up). They will definitely seal better than most cloth masks. But read the reviews to figure out which ones you’ll use. If you have several co-morbidity issues or are older, you might want to go strictly for the N95 masks. If I was 75 and older, or had diabetes, etc that’s what I’d do.
I’d also point out that even though reviewers indicate the masks should not be washed and re-worn, that concern is based on the worry that cleaning will degrade the material so it won’t filter 95% of particles (that’s what the 95 number means). But I recall that, on hard surfaces, the virus dies naturally in 2 or 3 days. So it’s very unlikely to last longer on the soft surfaces of masks.
I plan to get enough that I’ll have at least 7 masks. Even if I was out in public every day, that would suffice. I’m usually out in public 1 or 2 days a week and I avoid crowded places (the most crowded being grocery stores). I pick my shopping times to limit the size of the shopping crowd, usually to the first or last hour the store is open.
I’ll clear some space on a shelf or closet. After using a mask, I’ll take it off there, then wash my hands well, then my face. I’ll start with the next mask and repeat the process on my next outing. That way, if I keep them in order, a mask will rest 6 days at least before I use it. Any virus the mask was exposed to should be dead by then and the mask filtering capacity won’t be weakened.
I DO RECOMMEND that you speak with your doctor or a scientist before utilizing my plan, though. If you’re out in public or working with others daily, 30 N95 masks will cost at least $120/month. With my plan, I intend to use seven KN95 masks WITH A BANDANA over them. I can wash the bandanas where most of the virus will likely be. This will cost me closer to $14 a month. That’s the range of options, in my opinion: $14-$120. And I’ll toss the KN95s once they’re a month old.
If people maintain the other measures of avoiding crowds, proper social distancing and good hand washing, BUT UPGRADING THEIR MASKING, this should help reduce the faster transmission of the UK mutant. The key here is that a few months from now, this requirement will lessen, since vaccine distribution will ultimately lessen its spread to a trickle. If we do this for the 100 days Biden requested us to do, we might be done with the stricter mask measures by May 1. We should understand by now that early adherence that lasts longer than 60 days reduces future waves. Had some governors been patient last May for 4 to 6 weeks longer, the infection spikes that peaked in July and January would have been significantly smaller.
A package of 20 masks, utilized like I propose could cover your needs till May 1, if your doctor agrees.
On other fronts in the War Against Covid: Up to one third of people being vaccinated are reporting side effects. For most, that means a sore injection spot, a headache or some additional aches, and that passes in 1 to 3 days. For a very few, that can be worse with fever, more muscular aches, fatigue, similar to a bad flu. But unlike the flu, it’s completely done in 1 to 3 days.
These side effects are normal and should not be considered a reason to avoid vaccines. More serious reactions occur in well under 1% of the vaccinated. People with certain vaccine-intolerant conditions may have a valid reason to avoid it but skipping it for these temporary discomforts (that 2/3rds won’t experience at all) is not a wise choice. Anyone who’s experienced covid or see it close up (healthcare workers) have made it clear that the virus is not just deadly but a torturous way to die. Feeling crappy for maybe three days is much, much easier.
From friends and family, I already have heard that some have had zero issues, some have reacted worse on the second shot and none have felt the full flu effect. A sore arm, a headache, mild achiness is the typical stuff of a few. Don’t get caught up with the fears and the fear campaigns. The hurried testing process occurred because the companies didn’t need to spend valuable time fundraising. But they didn’t cut any corners in the testing process. The only real unknowns that remain are:
1) How effective will they be with the new variants?
2) How long does immunity last?
The pharmaceutical companies are already busy testing and changing formulas for testing against the new variants, so that question will be resolved in a few months. The second question doesn’t appear to be a problem yet as very very few reinfections have been recorded anywhere in the world. Maybe the vaccines will last a year or two. Maybe after that’s better known the most at risk - especially people over 60 - will do the same as they do with the flu, getting an annual shot.
But for the moment, early sustained action with the stronger mask efforts, plus getting your vaccine as soon as it’s offered is the fastest way we have to win this war. It’s the best advice the scientists have - based on facts, not fear.
If enough of us follow their advice, a March/April wave is likely to be confined to a few cities or states instead of the nationwide spikes of previous waves.
A final note: yes, the Super Bowl optics were bad in a pandemic. They were worse outside of the stadium in certain areas of Tampa, mostly, where thousands appeared to celebrate, closely packed and unmasked. Friends in that area said crowds were occurring all weekend in some local bars because of the Super Bowl drawing so many non-residents there. And to reiterate, Florida has identified more people who have the UK variant of Covid than any other state and its Governor DeSantis has taken actions before that suggest they may be fudging the numbers some.
So the odds are pretty high that Florida may be the worst state for Covid spread between Feb 15 and May 1. That’s not Super and both the Governor and NFL brass have to own that level of unethical profiteering and utter stupidity.
___________________________________________________
Desserts