Things to Watch For: elections, ejections, congressional inspections, Tuberville rejections, no bank connections plus a war pause and a test of bribery laws
I generally put little stock in polling a year before elections. The final 6 months is what matters. But this is pretty interesting.
From yesterday’s Quinnipiac Poll:
Others can marvel at Trump’s staying power, considering that the odds favor him getting several criminal convictions, a bankruptcy and the loss of most of his assets. Plus, 95% of the elect in his party are compelled to kiss his ass out of fear the sociopaths in his base will drop in to shoot or stab them.
But I get the party polarization. The most telling thing in this poll is what the Independents think. As is usually the case, the election outcome is mostly dependent on them. A one point difference right now is as fence sitting as it gets.
The legal outcomes will matter. Inflation will matter, too. As will the physical health of both men. If Biden avoids major health problems and can knock a dollar off the price of gasoline, the results are gonna be brutal for the Violent Extremist Party in 2024.
There’s just 4 states holding significant elections next Tuesday so I’ll be looking for signs that the Trumpkeisterkissin Party’s in trouble.
Will Kentucky Democratic Governor Beshear win re-election? It currently looks likely. Will Mississippi Republican Governor Reeves be re-elected? Also likely though it may be the closest race ever in that historically very Republican state.
Control of the Virginia state legislature hangs in the balance due to redistricting but it’s too close to call 5 days before the election. If the Republicans win both houses of the state legislature, it could be followed by anti-choice legislation as the Republican governor has been quietly funding several anti-choice candidates.
Abortion rights are the main feature on the ballot in Ohio. Voters there could get the right to abortion through fetal viability (approx 24 weeks) enshrined in the state constitution. With legal cannabis also on the ballot, liberal turnout should be ample for an offyear election.
Other than mayoral races, the results in these four states will have the punditry making 2024 predictions but Ohio and Virginia are the ones that could cause party strategies to change, principally on the issue of abortion rights.
In a Wednesday night speech, President Biden called for a humanitarian pause in the Israeli-HAMAS war. He specifically noted that pause would be to let some people leave Gaza, to get hostages out and to get humanitarian aid in. So many Palestinian civilians have died that opposition to the war is growing worldwide.
Israel’s leaders have made it clear that if they can take out a few members of Hamas, they think the deaths of nearby civilians is justified. Based on the IDF history, for every Israeli that’s been killed, they’ll seek to kill 20 HAMAS members. But will they do a temporary pause?
I don’t know.
I do think their aim to wipe out HAMAS completely will remain their top priority. Any pause is likely to be too brief to achieve all that Biden is seeking. And with or without a pause, it’s likely the deaths of civilians will continue because HAMAS will keep embedding themselves among large groups of civilians.
Whatever occurs there, it could provoke blowback on US citizens here and abroad for a decade or more.
In a congressional hearing Tuesday, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned “since the start of the Israel-Palestine conflict earlier this month, multiple foreign terrorist organizations have called for attacks against Americans and the west, significantly raising the threat posed by homegrown US violent extremists.
“The actions of Hamas and its allies will serve as an inspiration the likes of which we haven’t seen since Isis launched its so-called caliphate several years ago,” Wray said.
Note, however, that Wray was warning about domestic violent extremists.
In what appeared to be a quid pro quo, the House rejected an effort to expel Republican NY Congressman George Santos, who’s facing 23 counts of criminal actions. They also chose not to censure Democratic Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib for her criticisms of the Israeli military actions and dropped the retaliatory effort to rebuke Republican Georgia Representative Marjorie Greene, who led the effort to censure Tlaib.
The House Ethics Committee will continue its review of Santos with a recommendation expected on November 17th.
Democratic Representative Jamie Raskin explained the real reason he voted against the Santos expulsion:
With 16 days left to resolve the budget impasse, House Speaker Johnson has insisted to GOP Senators that he’ll move key items separately. First he wants to pass aid to Israel but only if the money comes from the IRS budget. Congressional Democrats have blasted that linkage as a gimme to extremely wealthy Americans who’ve been cheating on their taxes.
Johnson then wants to move a bill providing aid to Ukraine but only through January. He intends to move increased border security funds with that one. Democrats and Senator Mitch McConnell want the two military aid packages together with added funds for Taiwan’s security and the money for border security.
Meanwhile, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham joined a chorus of Republican Senators who spent 4 hours last night criticizing Alabama Senator Tuberville who’s been blocking nearly 400 military brass promotions for several months. Graham pointed out that military recruitment would suffer because why would anyone join if promotions can’t be earned? (that links to a video of Graham)
It appears the Senators will join Democrats for a long pressure campaign to get a slew of promotions passed as Tuberville’s blockade is endangering our national security. Tuberville is adamant that he will not yield due to the concussions he suffered on the football field maybe or maybe he’s just really that stupid.
More inconceivable mysteries about this a**hole again.
Judge Chutkin, who presides over the federal election interference trial of Donald Trump filed orders yesterday that concern the Classified Information Procedures Act according to settled law. Minutes later the inexperienced Judge Cannon (who has had a previous flawed ruling overturned by a higher court), deviated from the same settled law in the stolen documents case and once again seems poised to rule in Trump’s favor. He’s trying to get that case rescheduled from next May to after the 2024 election.
Trump appointed Judge Cannon so legal experts and others believe she may be showing favoritism and will be overturned again.
But her ruling drew a response that’s as bad as the threatening ones that provoked Trump’s gag orders. This clearly sounds like attempted bribery to me.
Sometimes you just have to let your feet go.