Why a European land war is imminent and alarming

Let's start an intervention, You and I

It’s time for a discussion of the threat of a Russian war on Ukraine beginning with a video by US Senator Chris Murphy (D- CT). Vladimir Putin may have made the worst mistake of his life. (It’s short; have a listen.)

Several years of history provide a better perspective.

Why does Putin and his advisors want to control Ukraine? One third of Ukraine speaks Russian and supports joining Russia. The historic links between the two countries offer a distinct sense of common destiny. Ukraine has been a reliable consumer base for Russia’s natural gas, and ultimately - under the ‘follow the money’ principle - Russia’s vast oil reserves play a central role.

The Russian government wants control of Ukraine’s pipelines and pipeline potential. They also fear that NATO’s cozying up to Ukraine will lead to an attempt to seize Russia’s oil. Putin has tried to negotiate based on one assurance: NATO would have to assure that Ukraine could not join that European-US alliance. NATO nations have consistently indicated that would violate its principles and its purpose of the collective security of Europe.

It’s pretty clear that - with an invasion - Russia would lose the green light for a planned German-Russian oil pipeline now (Nord Stream 2). Other economic sanctions would hurt its economy badly, undermining Putin’s leadership. He’s well aware fraying public support could topple him, as has occurred in several neighboring countries, as well as in Soviet Russia 33 years ago.

After an impeachment 8 years ago, Russian-supported separatists have been fighting the majority in Ukraine that wants continued independence from Russia and stronger ties with the European Union. That group is currently shelling targets in the Donbas region of the country, including a recent strike that hit a classroom of kindergarteners. More than 13,000 have died in the Donbas region since 2014. Russia also seized the entire Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine back then without a direct military attack, as the majority in that peninsula supports being part of Russia.

Ukraine, a nation of 44 million people - similar in size to the population of Iraq - is about to be attacked by Russia with a population more than 3 times larger. In November 2013 a wave of large protests - known as Euromaidan - began in Ukraine after then-President Yanukovych refused to sign a political and trade agreement with the European Union. In late February 2014, the Ukrainian parliament voted 328-0 to impeach Yanukovych. Putin called the impeachment an illegal coup and sent in Russian troops to seize pro-Russian regions in Ukraine. Yanukovych called it illegal, comparing it to the rise of the Nazi Party in Germany in the 1930s.

Petro Poroshenko - the 6th wealthiest person in Ukraine - became the president of Ukraine after a landslide victory in the resulting May 2014 presidential election. Since the collapse of the USSR both Russia and Ukraine saw a competition between oligarchs for control of both governments. Vladimir Putin emerged as the strongest in Russia and is considered to be one of the wealthiest billionaires in the world. In Ukraine, under Poroschenko - himself an oligarch - efforts to clean up corruption were instituted, though leaders in Europe and the US claimed judiciary reforms there were too slow and ineffective. They provided economic pressure for Ukraine to clean up the corruption in its judicial system.

After its current President Zelenskyy bested Poroshenko and was elected in 2019, he faced immediate pressure from President Trump to assist Trump’s re-election efforts by reporting manufactured evidence that Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, had violated laws in his work with Burisma, a Ukrainian natural gas company. The effort to promote that false narrative was begun several months before Zelenskyy’s election.

Zelenskyy refused to do so and Trump responded by illegally holding up military assistance to Ukraine that Congress had authorized to aid Ukraine fight the pro-Russian separatists and ward off further attacks by Russia. Trump was ultimately impeached for his crime, but was not convicted by the Republican majority US Senate.

Why is this old Trump history relevant to current events? Because when Trump’s principle business was as a real estate developer and he was having difficulty getting financing from US lenders, he began selling to Russian oligarchs to obtain funds. In shorthand terms, selling real estate deals to them allowed the oligarchs a way to launder illegal monies to make them appear as legitimate gains. Even shorter: Trump was helping the Russian mafia launder money.

(Note: while claims of election collusion between Trump and Putin have dominated some political news in recent years, clear evidence of that has not emerged. But the suspicions of that level of cooperation arose from Trump’s business dealings with Russian funders that go back to the 1990s, meetings between Trump campaign and administration officials and Russian government officials during the 2016 campaign, and the propaganda campaigns Putin conducted on social media that aided Trump’s election.

Putin has since continued those efforts, trying to aid Trump’s re-election in 2020 and trying to undermine popular support for President Biden in the past year. Which directly impacts the situation in Ukraine now.)

So what does this all mean for Ukrainians, Russians, Europe and the US?

1) For Putin it means he either has to back off or has to invade and succeed rapidly. US intel agencies claim he’s already got more than 175,000 Russian troops moved to the Ukrainian border, nearly double the number it was a month ago. (By comparison, at the peak of the US War on Iraq, US troop strength was about 166,000)

If the full invasion begins, he’ll try to capture Kiev, topple Ukraine’s government and get pro-Russian puppets installed. And do so within 1 to 2 weeks.

Despite US and EU weaponry being provided to Ukraine, the Russian military will be heavily focused on strikes against Ukraine’s troops and armories, much like GHW Bush conducted against Iraq in the first Gulf War. And Putin clearly has enough of a military edge that he may succeed, in this short term goal.

2) For Zelenskyy and Ukraine, the short term would likely prove devastating. But if Zelenskyy and key government officials can personally escape and conduct government business outside of Kiev, they can continue to lead the nation and undermine the Putin puppets.

As well, enough of the Ukrainian majority would survive and continue a guerrilla resistance war against Russian occupation. The longer that continues, the more Putin’s popularity would decline in Russia. Putin knows this, so if he invades, his initial attacks will be breathtakingly devastating.

3) European and US leaders also are well aware of Putin’s motivations and likely courses of action. That’s precisely why there’s been an unprecedented effort to publicly reveal what their intel agencies have discovered. It unsettles Russian intel to observe how much secret info is reaching NATO. If Putin decides not to invade, both the public intel info and the economic sanctions will be key to his decision.

4) As Ukraine is not a member of NATO, there’s no obligation for NATO to commit troops to defend Ukraine. So intel releases, military weaponry provision and economic sanctions are all they have available to prevent the Russian attack.

5) Outside of the Scandinavian countries, Ukraine is the largest European nation in land area. Russia, spanning two continents, is the largest country in the world by far. Comparing the military strength arrayed against Iraq from 2003 on to the military strength in this potential conflict, it’s easy to see why the conflict could persist beyond a decade. And why this could also spread to other European countries, just like we saw in Syria.

And a prolonged war would also create another big refugee problem for EU countries, as well, causing political problems for them.

Conclusion: It’s understandable that some will doubt the veracity of claims coming from US intel agencies. It’s smart to view them with skepticism, as they have a long record of propaganda pushing too.

But let’s also remember that over 13,000 have died in Ukraine already. Do they stand to lose half a million lives, like Iraq did?

Bodies will be blown apart. Old and younge people will be blown apart. Torture will occur. Refugees will head to bordering countries (esp toward EU countries like Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, which could hurt governments there). These things happen in every war. Both sides will do it.

Ukrainians don’t deserve this. Neither do Russians.

Already a few Republicans - like Ted Cruz - are playing political games with tens of thousands of lives, claiming that Biden is somehow inviting Putin to invade. Totally reprehensible bullshit. Those lives matter. Those lives will suffer.

Will this all blow up into another world war? That will take several years, if it happens. It can’t be ruled out. And note that Russia’s covid cases peaked one week ago. Ukraine’s peaked 2 weeks ago. The Flu pandemic of 1918 spread around the world because of soldiers traveling to and from that one.

Wars are now being fought over fossil fuels repeatedly, the fuels that will severely impact the future for everyone under 50. The promoters pushing these deadly decisions are now almost always the top one-quarter of one percent, the ultra-wealthy.

They profit from the mass murders. And I’m convinced we have to find new and better ways to stop them.

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