4 Comments
Jan 16·edited Jan 16Liked by Your server, Kevin Hayden

Excellent analysis, my friend.

I periodically revisit "The 13 Keys to the White House" paradigm, although their analysis can be a bit wobbly because some of the factors are subjective. The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election. When five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election. Currently, this analysis indicates a close election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#:~:text=The%20system%20is%20a%20thirteen,predicted%20to%20win%20the%20election.

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author

It looks like 12 and 4 are the only weak spots, well short of the 6 fail limit.

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founding

I feel like rambling.......!

Great analysis of the horse race. I know serious folks are counting electoral votes. I'll leave it to you. I'm more concerned with appearances.

I watched the short interview with Biden HCR has on her Facebook page. If I all I had to go on was how he came across in that interview, I'd think Biden was over. His only hope would be to simply harvest the votes of those who cannot stand Trump. And, should Trump be replaced by someone more reasonable, almost anyone, just judging by appearance, I fear he wouldn't stand a chance. He has to be one of the least charismatic politicians I've ever seen, at least to my eyes. Maybe he was having a long trying day.

Fortunately, I know what Biden's done, which is nothing short of miraculous. I hope enough voters either notice his incredible record or will vote for "anyone but Trump."

Meanwhile, the thing that I don't hear ANYONE mention is.... Trump's age and horrible physical shape. He talks a good rabble rousing game, but he's, what, only 3 years younger than Biden? Why does no one say, "hey, Trump's on his last legs! I doubt he'd live out a term! Overweight, in horrible shape, just LOOK at him! He's a disaster!" But all I hear is how old and infirm Biden is. Everyone says Biden looks bad. I agree, he doesn't look great. But Trump looks just as bad. Sounds terrible. Acts terrible.

Maybe Biden should challenge Trump to a foot race.

My advice, that no one is asking for: get some folks with real charisma to stump for him. There are two Democrats who would still win if they could run or would run, even now: Obama and Clinton. Like good cop, bad cop. Clinton appeals to the scoundrel in us all, even as Trump does on a cruder scale. Obama can take the high road. If a couple of Democratic billionaires put down a fraction of their fortunes to out-buy Trump ( or whoever ends up the GOP candidate ) and plaster the air with the two most popular Democratic presidents in modern history, I'd think the GOP would be toast.

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author

Yeah that interview was a bit slow but I think that may be partly HCR's fault. He usually comes off better when the hardball questions come out though he does have a soft spoken speaking style that gives ammo to his critics.

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